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BNN
Posted by Victor on May 28, 2010, 6:03 PDT in Current Events
Hi All,
I'll be on BNN this morning at 830 EST so if you have any questions pleaes email them the commodities report.
Also, not too long after i came back from europe did I return to another conference, so if I have been hard to get a hold of that would be why. I should have a couple of recommendations up soon including an old favorite, Orko Silver.
Cheers
BNN live from New York
Posted by Victor on Nov 20, 2009, 14:54 PST in Current Events
Hi everybody,
I was on BNN today on the commodities report. Go to bnn.ca and check it out.
China is worried
Posted by Victor on Mar 14, 2009, 7:09 PDT in Current Events
After reading the following article, it just goes to show how interdependent the Chinese are with the
The
So...the outcome will probably be more money spent by the
BEIJING – China's premier didn't say it in so many words, but the implied warning to Washington was blunt: Don't devalue the dollar through reckless spending. Premier Wen Jiabao's message is unlikely to be misunderstood at the White House. It is counting on Beijing to help pay for its stimulus package by buying U.S. bonds. China already is Washington's biggest foreign creditor, with an estimated $1 trillion in U.S. government debt. A weaker dollar would erode the value of those assets.
"Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I'm a little bit worried," Wen said at a news conference Friday after the closing of China's annual legislative session. "I would like to call on the United States to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets."
The appeal suggested the outlines of Chinese President Hu Jintao's stance when he meets with President Barack Obama at an April 2 summit in London of the Group of 20 major economies on possible remedies for the global crisis.
Wen gave no indication whether Beijing wants changes in U.S. policy. But economists said his comments reflect fears that higher U.S. budget deficits from Washington's $787 billion stimulus package could drive down the dollar and the value of China's Treasury notes.
"China is telling the U.S. to be careful, not to overspend and keep an eye on the dollar," said Kelvin Lau, regional economist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong. "There are risks that China cannot control, so they're depending on the U.S. to maintain fiscal prudence and keep the dollar reasonably stable."
In Washington, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs responded to Wen's concerns by saying the Chinese should rest assured because investments in the U.S. are the safest in the world.
Gibbs also said Congress can help by passing Obama's budget for next year, which promises to halve the deficit by the end of his term.
Analysts estimate China keeps nearly half of its $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves in U.S. Treasuries and notes issued by other government-affiliated agencies.
"Inside China there has been a lot of debate about whether they should continue to buy Treasuries," said Frank Gong, chief China economist for JP Morgan.
Beijing is trying to increase its leverage at the London G-20 meeting by reminding its partners of its role in financing U.S. spending, Gong said.
"Without China's buying (Treasuries) and continuing to fund U.S. deficit spending, interest rates could have been much higher. That could be very destabilizing in this very recessionary environment," he said. "By attracting a lot of attention to this issue, China is already increasing its influence ahead of the G-20 meeting."
Finance officials from the G-20 meet this weekend. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is pressing for a new coordinated global stimulus. Japan is supportive but European governments are reluctant to make expensive commitments before they see how current plans are working.
Wen also offered an unqualified defense Friday of his government's policies in Tibet, ignoring questions about a massive security buildup in the Himalayan region.
Tensions have spiked ahead of two key anniversaries this week — the 50th anniversary of a failed Tibetan uprising that sent the Dalai Lama into exile and Saturday's one-year anniversary of violent anti-Chinese riots in Lhasa that sparked the largest protests in decades.
Asked whether the massive security presence pointed to failings in Beijing's policies, Wen said: "The situation in Tibet is on the whole peaceful and stable. The Tibetan people hope to work in peace and stability.
"Tibet's continuous progress (has) proven the policies we have adopted are right," he said.
Wen expressed confidence the world's third-largest economy can meet its official growth target of 8 percent this year and emerge from the crisis "at an early date." But he said Beijing is ready to expand its 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus if needed.
"We already have our plans ready to tackle even more difficult times, and to do that we have reserved adequate ammunition," he said. "That means that at any time we can introduce new stimulus policies."
Communist leaders worry about rising job losses and possible unrest amid a trade slump that saw Chinese exports fall 25.7 percent in February from a year earlier. They have promised to spend heavily to create jobs and boost exports.
Chinese bank lending and power demand have risen, suggesting the stimulus is taking effect. But growth in retail sales is weakening, indicating it has yet to spur private sector spending and investment, which analysts say will be key to its success.
Private sector economists expect growth as low as 5 percent this year. That would be the strongest of any major country but could lead to more waves of job cuts.
"I really believe we will be able to walk out of the shadow of the financial crisis at an early date," Wen said. "After this trial, I believe the Chinese economy will show greater vitality."
Wen also said Beijing wants the G-20 summit in April focus on helping the poorest countries.
The premier said Beijing has met its own commitments to help developing countries by erasing a total of $40 billion in debt owed by 46 countries and giving out 200 billion yuan ($29 billion) of aid to developing countries."
"We must see to it that we show concern for developing countries," he said.
-yahoo finance
Recent media
Posted by Victor on Feb 27, 2009, 10:01 PST in Radio Shows, Website, Current Events
Hi everyone,
Recently I have been featured on the following TV and radio show.
BNN and The Korelin Economics Report.
Please follow the links to these clips and also be sure to check out the Green Money Report that I have recently launched in January at www.greenmoneyreport.com
http://watch.bnn.ca/thursday/#clip143986
http://www.kereport.com/WeekendSpecial/ws022209-3.mp3
http://www.kereport.com/WeekendSpecial/ws022209-4.mp3
Base metals on life support, but should be on the
Posted by Victor on Jan 29, 2009, 9:38 PST in Current Events
Looks like the state of infrastucture is very bad, but that means good things for the base metals story down the road.
<script src="http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/js/2.0/video/evp/module.js?loc=dom&vid=/video/us/2009/01/28/dcl.jm.infrastructure.cnn" type="text/javascript"></script><noscript>Embedded video from <a href="http://www.cnn.com/video">CNN Video</a></noscript>
Obama gives the Green Light to GREEN!
Posted by Victor on Jan 8, 2009, 8:34 PST in Current Events
He plans on “doubling the green alternatives in the next 3 years”
Retrofitting 75% of buildings to be more efficient.
Creating jobs in the green sector was directly quoted.
This was mentioned today in his address. What does this do for green and my theory of the economic recovery? It means I’m right AND somebody with decision making power recognizes.
I will be launching a new newsletter that will focus entirely on green technologies and a new green economy. All ENE subscribers will have an automatic subscription to this new newsletter.
Kindest Regards.
oil prices down, airfare up!
Posted by Victor on Nov 20, 2008, 11:01 PST in Current Events
Court ruling means airlines must make room for disabled
Thu Nov 20, 10:18 AMThe Canadian Press
By The Canadian Press
OTTAWA - The Supreme Court of Canada has put its stamp of approval on a regulatory order forcing major airlines to provide an extra seat for free to disabled or obese passengers who need the room.
In a decision released without comment, the high court rejected an application by Air Canada and WestJet for permission to appeal the order issued by the Canadian Transportation Agency.
The court decision, in effect, upholds the agency's finding that the two carriers were discriminating against the disabled.
The agency ordered the companies last January to adopt a policy of "one person, one fare."
That would mean, for example, that a disabled person who needs additional room for a wheelchair, or an obese person who needs an additional seat, couldn't be charged extra.
It would also mean that, if a disabled person has to be accompanied by an attendant, the attendant would ride for free.
Bus, train and ferry companies have long agreed to such arrangements, but the airline industry has argued it would lose too much money by doing the same.
***
This is a win for a certain portion of the population and at no disrespect to them. However, the airlines aren't going to just absorb that cost. I would suspect that this would be a great piece of news to hike airfare.
Maybe, seeing as healthcare is a governmental duty, it should be a policy that is subsidized by the government. I would be interested to see if the government would pass such a law if they had to pay for it.
I would suspect that they MIGHT and IF they did, the paperwork to determine if an obese or disabled person qualifies would be daunting.
Crash
Posted by Victor on Oct 8, 2008, 10:05 PDT in Current Events
Quoted in Barron's
Posted by Victor on May 15, 2008, 8:27 PDT in Current Events
Good day,
Recently, some of my work has been quoted in the Barron's publication, one of the most widely read financial publication in the US.
I am still trying to get a copy of it, but when I do, I'll post it.
Cheers
Recent Kitco post.
Posted by Victor on Mar 28, 2008, 14:58 PDT in Current Events
I recently posted this on kitco. For those who haven't seen it yet, here it is.
The Commodities Super Cycle?
So what’s driving it? I would like to take a second to show some interesting statistics.
On June 30th 2001, copper was near or at its all time low of around 60 cents, effectively uneconomic, and had been like that for some time. Inventories were also at all-time highs. That date also reflects the highest price-point of the US dollar. Since then, we have seen the largest run in the price of copper (as well as all commodities) ever.
There are several key drivers to this that have to be examined. We’ll look at copper and then extend it to other commodities. The sheer increase in consumption without much production has caused the inventories levels to drop about 78%. Based on that alone, and assuming a perfectly competitive market, we should have seen a proportionate increase in the price of copper. After doing the math, we should get a price of copper based on inventories of 2.47 a pound, a far cry from the current 3.90 a pound. Or another way of looking at it is to take the current price of 3.90 and adjusting it down by 37.6 percent to reflect the weakness the US dollar has had since 2001 and it comes out to 2.43 a pound. Either way it comes to roughly the same price and they reflect equilibrium between price and inventories. This is very interesting because the price of copper is not determined by fundamentals alone, when reflected in US dollars as just demonstrated.

So how do we price copper as well as all commodities? If we use the fastest growing economies, then it is either the Chinese currency or a basket of the Asian currencies. That is problematic because of the manipulation of the currency and the weakness of the banking system in most Asian economies. The next candidate is the EURO. If we price copper in Euros, we get a price of 2.57 a pound. What we have is a (nearly) perfectly competitive market in copper, based on the fact that copper inventories have decreased by the same proportion of the increase in price (using Euros). The price of copper is (nearly) perfectly reflected in Euros. This suggests that the Euro is a much stronger and safer currency. Again to emphasize, this relationship is between the price of copper based on the inventory numbers and the price of copper priced in Euros. One other quick note in the name of consistency, the price of copper (as well as all other commodities) was roughly the same in Euros as in USD in June of 2001.
Going back to fundamentals, we have not seen a noticeable change in the inventories of copper since about early 2005. That suggests that the price move of copper was strictly correlated with the change in the US dollar. Sure there were small fluctuations in the inventory numbers, but that was reflected in price as well.
So what is going to drive the price of copper going forward? If the US dollar falls even farther, which I think it will, then we will see an increase in the price of copper. Inventories seem to be holding steady in a range, so I personally will be using the EURO dollar to price copper.
How do the rest of the commodities stack up under the same analysis? This analysis works surprisingly well for all other metals, as it is based on simple supply and demand principles adjusted for inflation. Here is a table of the results;
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* the inventory levels of Nickel have been exceptionally volatile over said period of time, thus an average is taken |
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e = equilibrium |
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u = underpriced |
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o = overpriced |
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What I would like to point out is the following:
- With the exception of moly and zinc, all metals prices are within 10 percent of their equilibrium, which for anything that is tradable on a daily basis is remarkably good.
- The price of Moly and zinc in Euros should therefore adjust accordingly to their inventory-reflected prices.
- Pricing of commodities in Euros is only on average 5.2% different than the US currency inflation adjusted price.
- About 1/3 of the commodities rally is due strictly to the drop in the US dollar.
Going forward, the question begs to be asked what will happen to commodity prices? The answer to this is relatively simple. For the foreseeable future they should remain fairly close to or at these levels in Euros. The US price of the metals will fluctuate with the change in the US dollar. I am of the camp that the US dollar is on the way out. So in US terms I believe that the price will continue to rise until we start pricing commodities in Euros.
As for inventories, they hit their lowest point in 2005 and have been stable or slowly rising ever since. This means that there is enough copper feeding the markets to keep up with the current consumption rate. This is reflected in the record amounts of exploration. This will not translate into any meaningful increase in production for several years yet, but it does suggest that the clock is ticking towards lower metals prices, or at least that we may have had a peak in metals prices in real terms.
Victor Goncalves
UPDATE
Posted by Victor on Feb 29, 2008, 12:32 PST in Website, Current Events
The WCMS Newsletter has changed its name to the EQUITIES AND ECONOMICS REPORT.
Further you can catch Victor Goncalves on BNN on March 4th for the Stars and Dogs segment.
Silver is on a tear!
Posted by Victor on Feb 26, 2008, 16:11 PST in Current Events
This comes as no surprise to WCMS Newsletter subscribers because in February of 2007 an extensive article was released with regards to silver supply and demand as well as some price targets. Silver currently is at 18.82 on the spot price which has closed the gap on the gold/silver price ratio to 50.1, down from 56-57. Silver is on target to my shorter term price target of 22-25 dollars. Recent demand and supply fundamentals have softened over the past year, but I believe that it will be a temporary effect. Investment demand is set to accelerate as well as demand in industrial uses. The real catalyst is going to be the investment demand in the future.
We have had a spectacular run and may start to see some resistance come in at the 19-20 dollar range, but that is to be expected with big moves like this.
If you want to receive the entire document as well as a fantastic silver focused companies please sign up www.wcmsnewsletter.com/signup
Growth in China
Posted by Victor on Feb 4, 2008, 14:11 PST in Current Events
If any one was wondering about the growth in China and maybe figuring that it would go away if the US went into recession, here's some food for thought.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, well in this case, about 1,000,000 per square kilometer. Just imagine going to the beach here! 
question from a reader
Posted by Victor on Feb 1, 2008, 11:48 PST in Current Events
Hi Victor,
Just wanted to get your take on why the precious metal stocks are down this week. Silver has been screaming lately, yet the silver stocks have been down over the last week. Silver was up +.30 earlier today, (and almost +$1.00 since Jan 11) yet all of the silver stocks are getting hammered, trading well off their highs earlier this month while silver trades at 27 year highs??? Do you have any explanation and how long you think this will last before they move higher.
Thanks man.
Bill
Bill, you bring up a good question. I am more curious as to which companies you are referring to or rather as to which company class you are referring to.
First lets take some comparatives, this my help to sort out why.
Last Tuesday, the TSX dropped about 600 points and the Ventures dropped about 227 points. The TSX dropped from 13000 or so and the Ventures from about 2750ish. One is a 5% drop and the other is an 8.5% drop. That is the first part, potentially you are looking at juniors and this would answer your question. Lack of liquidity in the juniors and a lack of certainty about the markets will give us a flight to safety and that means to a large degree away from the juniors. You’ll notice the TSX bounced 50 8 points the next day and the Ventures only about 80. The TSX regained almost all of its footing where as the Ventures regained about 1/3. This is the problem we see.
Secondly we are seeing silvers fundamentals change on the industrial side. 50 percent of the silver used is industrial. That demand is going to decrease a little. Further, we are seeing a little more softness from the investment side of things in the past little while. We have also seen some hedging in silver sales for the first time in a long time. This is an indicator from the producers that they think silver is getting high. How accurate that is…another story. Gold was hedged at 300 dollars an ounce. That combination may have caused some pressure on silver stocks. I don’t think that the decrease in investment in silver will stick around for long but we are not going to see that robust growth in silver investment until we see gold push higher, say 1050 or better.
With that all being said, the next point is that much of the silver that is produced is from polymetalic mines not really pure producers. A lot of the pressure we are seeing is more on the side of the explorers.
I see silver stocks this year in an interesting position. Those with great assets will do well, Orko silver is an example, in fact this pull back we have seen might present a good time to reposition ones self with silver companies.
I hope this answers your question, it was a good questions and I am putting the answer up on the site for the reference of other readers.
I would like to point out that this answer might have sounded a little bearish, but I am still very bullish on silver. I Still maintain my targets for this year and the coming years. If you are not a subscriber and would like to know more, go ahead and sign up for a 1,2 or 3 year subscription.
Cheers
med school?
Posted by Victor on Dec 8, 2007, 13:09 PST in Current Events
This was taken from the www.mercola.com website. I thought it was good for a laugh but it is alarming when you read it. The defenition of disorders has now moved to every aspect of life.
Normal Human Experience Now Masqueraded as “Disorders”
Do you have difficulty sleeping after drinking coffee? The problem isn’t a product of your poor judgment in guzzling java immediately before retiring. You are a victim of 292.89 -- Caffeine-Induced Sleep Disorder F15.8. If you reflect on your shyness while tossing and turning, the problem could be the epidemic of 300.23 -- Social Phobia F40.1. Don’t worry. Drug treatment is available.
Unfortunately, if you’re thinking about your place in the cosmos or spiritual issues, you’ve got V62.89 -- Religious or Spiritual Problem Z71.8, and I couldn’t locate a drug for that.
Bad parenting is about to become a thing of the past. It’s not your fault, or your child’s fault. Besides the ubiquitous pandemic of ADHD, there are other disorders you may not be aware of.
Your ill-behaving child may be suffering from 313.81 -- Oppositional Defiant Disorder F91.3. If your child often argues with adults, loses their temper, deliberately annoys people, etc., you’re dealing with ODD. Of course, this must be differentiated from 312.8 -- Conduct Disorder F91.8, and 312.9 -- Disruptive Behavior Disorder Not Otherwise Specified F91.9.
Should the problem be getting along with a brother or sister, the condition is V61.8 -- Sibling Relational Problem F93.3. And should you argue with your spouse about whether the child should be grounded or drugged, you might be looking down the barrel of V61.1 -- Partner Relational Problem Z63.0.
If math homework is a challenge, be sure to check for 315.1 -- Mathematics Disorder F81.2. You must be careful not to confuse this with a V62.3 -- Academic Problem Z55.8. If things are OK in the math department, but you have a teen experiencing uncertainty about life goals, career preferences, values, loyalties, etc., you’re dealing with 313.82 Identity Problem F93.8. This has been downgraded from a “disorder” in DSM-III-R, to a mere “problem” in DSM-IV. I’ll bet that makes you feel better.
A Pill for Every Issue You Don’t Want to Face
A plethora of sexual issues are described as “disorders.” We are all familiar with Bob Dole making erectile dysfunction a household word, with the blue pill offering a solution. But that’s just the tip of the, um, iceberg. If the target of your libidinal interest is ignoring you, the problem may be 302.71 Hypoactive Sexual Desire Disorder F52.2.
Lest anyone be offended, I will not address the other disorders codified in Chapter 20. Simply be happy that there are solutions that do not require you to address issues in your relationship.
Men can obtain testosterone cream if a doctor determines that it’s “right for you.” The stuff is said to work well. According to an ad in JAMA5, “Sexual enjoyment and satisfaction with erection duration were improved vs. baseline, but these improvements were not significant compared to placebo.” The ad shows a couple dancing, a couple riding a motorcycle, and two pictures of men swinging golf clubs (alone) and smiling.
Perhaps the next version of DSM will have a category for “golf disorders.”
REFERENCES
- Wood H: Retail therapy. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 2003;4:700.
- Webster’s New Universal Unabridged Dictionary. Barnes and Noble. New York. 1996.
- Reed WH, Wise MG: DSM-IV Training Guide. Brunner/Mazel, Inc. Philadelphia, PA. 1995.
- JAMA 2003;290(11):1427.
Cambridge House Toronto
Posted by Victor on Nov 1, 2007, 15:15 PDT in Conferences, Current Events
It is not often that I do this, but I would like to mention one of the dinners I had at the Cambridge House in Toronto recently. I had dinner with the president of Alexandria Minerals Mr. Eric Owens, his wife and Mr. Matt Morrish. It was a delightful dinner and I was able to get an update on the operations of the company.
I must say that the operations are almost insignificant to the management. Mr. Owens has had many years in exploration and management. One of the things I like about him is that he is a realist and not a person to pump people full of hot air. These are attributes that are harder to find these days in the market place. We didn’t just talk about work we talked about wine, family, and life in general. Mr. Owens is what I would consider one of the top CEO’s in Quebec exploration.
The project itself is worth talking about. I visited it in August and wrote about it in the blog section. I believe that the current exploration methods and geologists being used will yield something of value. It is too early to really discuss the economics of it but the grades were good and the not too deep.
I would like to suggest to everyone to stop by Alexandria’s website and have a look as to what they are doing. www.azx.ca
Here are some pics from the August tour.

the group on site taking notes of the property

on site-the drill turning.

at the core shack examining the core.
Gold breaks 800 dollars
Posted by Victor on Oct 31, 2007, 17:30 PDT in Current Events
Gold broke through $800 today and silver is pushing through $14.50. These are positive signs. I firmly believe that precious metals are going to accelerate their gains and that we will see more volitity in their prices. More specifically Silver will really be the star. For the full WCMS report on the price targets for the metals and more sign in or if you're not a member, sign up at www.wcmsnewsletter.com/signup/
You will be kept up to date about what is going on with the markets and what companies are set to outperform.
Plus, find out which major gold company is set to soar over the next 6 months.
property tours and comapny updates
Posted by Victor on Oct 14, 2007, 10:32 PDT in Current Events
Just wanted to keep everyone up to speed. I have had a long couple of weeks on different property tours. I have visited a property in Gaspe, Quebec of Threegold Ressources (THG.V). It was a first class tour. More info about that tour and my opinion of the company coming soon.
I then visited Metal Corp (MTC.V) property in the Marathon, Ontario area. The tour was first class and they projects look very enticing. More information and my opinion on the property, pictures and more coming soon.
I will now be going to Chile this week(actually i'm in the airport writing this). If you would like to know which company I will be visiting there, just visit the site soon.
Also, I am releasing an update on 5 companies today! Find out what has moved and what is about to move.
Not a member? subscribe today! www.wcmsnewsletter.com/signup/
Val D'or
Posted by Victor on Aug 17, 2007, 14:05 PDT in Current Events
At the begining of this month I went up to Val D'or to Visit Alexandria Minerals (AZX.V) property. The aggressive nature of the drill program and extensive knowledge of the exploration team should help get this project going quickly.
Recently AZX.V issued relativily good news regarding the drill program. Given the current market situation it was recieved as well as it could have been. Keeping a close eye on this companies updates would be of value.
Pictures to come shortly
What happens when you build a house of cards by th
Posted by Victor on Jul 20, 2007, 0:03 PDT in Current Events
the wind evetually comes and blows it down.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6906914.stm
In the above story we are seeing evidence that house of cards is about to fall down. The main concern in this article is the sub-prime lending mixed with the lack of ability of most americans to live with in their means. The result could mean a literal collapse of the standard of living in the US as we know it. Cutting the GDP per capita by half would not be out of the question.
Hard assets will help protect your portfolio as most banks around the world will rush to by it. Don't like physical gold, some quaility gold exploration and mining companies will offer greater upside potential.
For the WCMS picks, sign in or if you're not a member...sign up today!
Uranium
Posted by Victor on Jun 8, 2007, 11:35 PDT in Current Events
Uranium dropped for the first time in...many many months.
Uranium finally pulled back a little this week. I've been calling for this for a little bit now. As I have mentioned, The uranium price chart looked a little like an exponential price chart and was due for a technical correction. This modest 3 dollar drop hopefully is the start of a small correction to keep the uranium market healthy. Nothing goes up forever even if the fundamentals warrant it. Even if the price of uranium drops back to 100 dollars a pound, it is still very economical and would create a good platform to keep going in price, assuming current and accelerated demand.
I'll be giving a talk at the Cambridge House conference regarding Uranium, So if you are in the area, don't miss it!
In Peru
Posted by Victor on May 28, 2007, 23:44 PDT in Current Events
Good day,
I has been a while since the last blog post, mainly due to the traveling. I am currently on site at a propeerty that WCMS covers. With an infered resource of over 3.6 billion lbs of copper and a tiny market cap of around 40 million, sign up today to see the full report which will include pictures form the site and operations.
gold soon to flirt with 700 again?
Posted by Victor on May 4, 2007, 13:46 PDT in Current Events
Can gold break 700 next week?
Gold staled on the last run to 700 at 698 dollars an ounce. There is nothing overly special of the 700 dollar point except that it is a physiological barrier. Today gold hit 690 and has had two strong back to back days. Can the momentum continue? I would hope yes. On reason is that if gold is the safe haven and moves opposite to the U.S dollar than it should have been rising given that the U.S dollar has been declining and is the current bench mark.
One thing to point out is that other then the value we have placed on it, for jewellery and an alternative to the U.S dollar there really is no added value. It is more of an object of fear. If the U.S economy were to turn around over night then gold would fall back to it’s 1999 levels. That being said it place a very low probability of that happening any time soon.
For the short term the main reasons for the weakness in gold has been…the drop in investment usage(ETF’s) and the perceived strength of the U.S economy. These facts should be nullified by the fact that the U.S dollar is a the weakest point in a very long time.
In the long run it seems to be more if a question of when not if. So I do believe that gold should break that point and move up from there.
Copper has had an amazing run in the past few months, appreciating in value by around 50%. The catalysts for supporting these levels do need to be examined. The first 2 catalysis’s are the U.S housing market and the Chinese growth Story. The US household consumes about 400 lbs of copper, half of that is based on construction alone. The US housing construction market should slow down so one would expect a dent in the price of copper. The slack should been picked up by Germany and Italy in the automotive sector.

Copper consumption is set to grow over the next couple of years by 30%. I think this number is very conservative due to the growth of many other countries such as India and Brazil. The question begs to be asked “are India, China and other emerging economies growing fast enough to offset the contracting US economy?” I would posit that yes. Asia in particular is growing at a rate about 3 times faster than most developed countries. Already, it accounts for 50% of the copper consumption. In 5-10 years that number, based on the population of Asia and the growth rate of that population, could easily be much higher.
The zinc market has been one of the weaker performers in this metal market. It has actually bucked the trend of copper and the other base metals and retreated in price in the early part of this year. One of the reasons for that is that the inventories have not been depleted as fast as the copper and there was just more of it around relative to 1999.The later part of this year should be better for zinc due to the fact that the inventories are dropping and that there has not really been any new supply. It is reported that smelters across the world are not working to full capacity due to the lack of ore to put in them. This combination is creating a shortage and this should persist for at least 2 years. This should push zinc prices higher over that period of time. Other fundamentals that are driving the price of zinc are the Asian growth stories with an offsetting effect from a decreasing demand from western countries.

In conclusion, the zinc and copper markets are great places to be and should both benefit from the Asian growth stories. Copper has had a better run to date, but based on the current situation as mentioned above zinc should start to appreciate considerably.
Mine tours
Posted by Victor on Apr 9, 2007, 16:20 PDT in Current Events
CO2 emissions 'violates rights'
Posted by Victor on Mar 2, 2007, 17:55 PST in Current Events
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6408441.stm
just reading the news today and came by the above link. Yes the call for reducing green house gasses has been at the forefront of the news but this goes to show how it is effecting a group of people that depend on the cold. We at WCMS Newsletter believe in sources of energy that do not have a large impact on the invronment. We also know how to profit from the ongoing and coming shift to alternative energies.